Week of January 18th, 2021 in Review

Nearly a year into the pandemic, the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time remains elevated, unfortunately. While the number of people continuing to receive regular benefits, Pandemic Emergency benefits or Pandemic Unemployment Assistance benefits did each decline, the drops were likely due to benefits expiring rather than people finding employment. 

The housing market continues to be a bright spot in our economy, with homes in high demand around the country. Existing Home Sales, which measures closings on existing homes and sales would be even higher if there was more inventory, which currently sits at a record-low.

However, there was some good news for homebuyers on the inventory front. Housing Starts were up in December, much stronger than expected. Perhaps even more importantly, starts on single-family homes (which are in especially high demand) were up as were Building Permits.

Builder confidence fell in January but remains at a strong level. The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which is a real-time read on builder confidence, fell to 83 in January. However, any number over 50 signals expansion.

Lastly, there was some good news from the manufacturing sector, as the Philadelphia Fed Index was reported at 26.5 for January, which was much higher than expected.

Initial Jobless Claims Remain Elevated

Another 900,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week ending January 16. While this was a decline of 26,000 from the previous week, Initial Jobless Claims remain extremely elevated nearly a year into the pandemic.

Continuing Claims, which are delayed a week and which measure people who continue to receive benefits, also declined by 127,000 to 5.1 million.

Pandemic Unemployment Assistance Claims, which provides benefits to people who would not usually qualify, dropped by 1.7 million after falling 941,000 in the previous week. That figure now stands at 5.7 million. Pandemic Emergency Claims, which extends claims by 13 weeks after regular benefits expire, decreased by 1.4 million to 3 million.

Unfortunately, the declines are likely due to benefits expiring. However, it’s unclear if people will be able to reapply as some of these benefits have been extended in the latest stimulus package.

Inventory of Existing Homes Hits Record Low

Existing Home Sales, which measures closings on existing homes, were up 0.7% from November to December. Sales were also up 22% year over year.

Low inventory remains the biggest challenge for homebuyers, as there were only 1.07 million homes for sale at the end of December, equaling a record low of just a 1.9-months' supply. This lack of supply helped homes sell fast in December, as they averaged just 21 days on the market, while foot traffic was up 24% year over year.

First-time buyers accounted for 31% of sales in December, down slightly from 32% in November. All-cash sales decreased from 20% in November to 19% in December, but remain at a high level.

The median home price was $309,800, up 12.9% from December 2019. In December, sales of lower-priced homes were down 15%, while sales of homes above $1 million were up 90%. This dragged the median home price higher.

Strong Housing Starts a Good Sign for Low Inventory

Housing Starts, which measure the start of home construction, were up 5.8% from November to December, much stronger than the 0.8% gain expected. Starts were also up 5.2% compared to December of last year.

Perhaps even more importantly, starts on single-family homes were up 12% from November to December and nearly 28% year over year. This rise in starts will certainly help with the many homes that have been contracted but not built yet. And while more building is needed, the increase in starts is a positive step in the right direction.

Building Permits, which are a good future indicator of Housing Starts, were also on the rise, up 4.5% from November to December and 17.3% year over year.

Homebuilder Confidence Declines But Remains Strong

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which is a real-time read on builder confidence, fell 3 points from December's revised figure of 86 to 83 in January.

However, when we look at this number in context, it's important to note that any reading above 50 signals expansion so confidence remains at extremely high levels overall. In addition, there are only three other readings higher over the past year, 85 in October, 90 in November and 86 in December. The reason for the drop in January is that builders are concerned about a changing regulatory environment.

What to Look for This Week

More housing news is ahead this week, beginning Tuesday with November's home price appreciation data from both the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index. December's New Home Sales data follows on Thursday and Pending Home Sales will be reported on Friday.

The first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year begins Tuesday, with the policy statement to follow on Wednesday, which always has the potential to move the markets. Wednesday also brings news on Durable Goods Orders for December.

Technical Picture

The Fed continues to provide stability to the markets with its ongoing purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities. Mortgage Bonds remain in a range between support at the 103.053 Fibonacci level and a ceiling of resistance at the 100-day Moving Average.

Oahu, Hawaii: Your Choice of Places to Live, Work and Invest in

Part IV of IV

Homeowners, investors and vacationers looking for the “ideal” destination need no longer search the globe for their paradise on earth. They’ll find it on Hawaii’s Oahu island in Honolulu county. The Kauai and Kaiwi channels separate the island from its neighboring islands - Molokai in the southeast and Kauai in the northwest. The two parallel mountain ranges of Waianae and Koolau connect through a central plateau.

This geographic setting for Oahu makes it an ideal place to own, rent or invest in homes and luxury condos in Honolulu.

Why Oahu?

Every one of us has certain expectations of a place, whether we are visiting, renting, investing or owning property there. The list may vary, but in most cases, it includes:

·        Great weather

·        Peaceful environment (low crime, geo-political stability)

·        Friendly neighbors and inhabitants

·        Lots of opportunity to relax and live stress free

·        Access to modern amenities

The beauty of investing in or owning luxury oceanfront homes for sale in Hawaii, on the island of Oahu, is that it offers all the above…and a lot more! The homes for sale on the island are magnificent in every respect. Most of them offer breathtaking beachfront views. Residents enjoy all the comforts of modern living – AC, heating, celling fans, clean running water, spacious rooms, stunning greenery, breathtaking scenery of trees, mountains and peaks and valleys.

For visitors and vacationers there’s plenty of outdoor fun, including bodysurfing, snorkeling, wind and wave surfing, sailing, golfing…and much more. Family-oriented property owners have access to some of the top schooling, healthcare, dining experiences and shopping.

Best of all, owning luxury real estate in Honolulu on the island of Oahu gives residents the perfect escape from the stress and anxiety of living in the big cities. Here, there are blue skies, gorgeous white clouds, sunny days and no extreme temperatures all year around. No traffic jams to contend with. No irate drivers to honk or yell at you. And, you’ll have lots of friendly residents, storeowners and visitors to welcome you.

So…why Oahu? Because there’s no other place like it!

Oahu places worth considering

If you are ready to make the Big Move to Oahu, then here are a few places where you might just find your special piece of Hawaiian heaven:

1)     Portlock

If it’s premier Hawaii beachfront real estate that you are looking for, then you’ll find it here, in Portlock, one of Hawaii’s leading residential oceanfront neighborhoods located in the Hawaii Kai region. Your new home will likely be one from an exquisite selection of about 120 properties located at the base of Koko Head. The homes in Portlock are of a mixed architecture – some of older vintage while other estates represent the stunning miracle of modern architectural genius!  

Residents have access to all the amenities, including upscale shopping at Kahala Mall and Koko Marina, as well as proximity to other fun spots, such as Ala Moana Shopping Center, Iolani Palace, the Royal Hawaiian Shopping Center, the State Capitol, Haunama Bay and Waikiki Beach.

What is now an upscale neighborhood in Oahu for homes and luxury condos in Honolulu was once, for generations, a secret fishing haven for the ancient inhabitants. The area is now named after Nathaniel Portlock, one of Captain Cook’s shipmates who later commanded his own ship and sailed back into Maunalua Bay. Famous American industrialist Henry Kaiser built most of the modern-day homes and settlements in Portlock. Great interest and fame came to Portlock back then, and it still so, as a result of Mr. Kaiser’s real estate gift to his wife – a set of two oval shaped pink mansions to hold her pink poodles!   

2)     Aina Haina

Another sought after area for luxury homes for sale in Hawaii is the Aina Haia neighborhood of Honolulu. An established housing area, it comprises of roughly 650 homes primarily located between Hawaii Loa Ridge and Waialae Iki. The potential for real estate investment and property value appreciation in Aina Haina is such real estate experts dubbed it “the next Kahala” – a reference to that region’s (Kahala ‘s) high-end, expensive homes and luxury condominium properties.

Owning luxury real estate in Honolulu usually comes with mystery and mystique that adds to the alure of investing and buying property here – and Aina Haina is no exception. By some accounts, the root of this region’s name “Haina” lies in the Hawaiian term for “sacrifice”. This version of history attributes the name to the practice of human sacrifice by the ancient residents living here. Other accounts trace the origins of the name to a dairy farm “Hind-Clarke Dairy” owned by Robert Hind, that occupied a significant part of the district. Hence the name “Aina” meaning “land” and “Hind” to make it “Hind’s Land”.   

As an owner, investor and resident here, you’ll have access to the Aina Haina Shopping Center, housing a number of amenities like brand-name grocer Foodland Farms, a pet hospital, yoga studio, a number of restaurants and much more. The area is also home to several parks that offer excellent beach access, including Kawaikui Beach Park and Wailupe park.   

3)     Niu Valley

If it’s celebrity company that you crave, Niu Valley is where you want to own luxury oceanfront homes for sale in Hawaii.  With a quiet neighboring community of Kuliouou to the east, and Hawaii Loa Ridge to the west, and under the watchful gaze of the evergreen Koolau mountains, many a local Hawaiian celebrity figure calls Niu Valley their home. Because of the enchanting surroundings and peaceful ambiance of the neighborhood, homes and condos in the area are a rarity on the real estate market. So, if you have your heart set on owning a property in this serene valley, you must act quickly or it’ll be gone in a flash!

Beach-lovers will be thrilled to learn that Kawaikui Beach Park, which offers excellent beach access, is conveniently located a stone throws distance from their homes. For parents of school-going children, two prominent schooling options include the prestigious private Waldorf School, and the highly acclaimed Niu Valley Middle School. Another advantage of owning Hawaii beachfront real estate in Niu Valley is that just along the Kalanianaole Hwy is the Niu Valley Shopping Center, where residents, tourists and business visitors enjoy an array of modern-day amenities, including French dining at Le Bistro and convenience shopping at a 7-Eleven   

Part III of IV

If you are a DIY enthusiast, you’ll likely have 50-ways to do a certain thing – like fix a leaky faucet or clear the pesky clogged drain. Well, as a global real-estate watcher, let me tell you that there are also fifty (or even a 100!) reasons for you to consider taking a closer look at Hawaii as a real estate opportunity. Of course, that does not always mean relocation:

·        Investing in Hawaii condos for sale may be the single most profitable transaction of a lifetime, with enormous future up-side potential

·        Buying a vacation home in any one of Hawaii’s luxurious living areas, like Kailua, Lanikai or Mokuleia, may be great for you and your family and friends looking for your secret “island getaway”

·        Owning rental property in Oahu, whether it’s in Haleiwa, Diamond Head or Waialupe Circle, offers exceptional opportunity for supplementary lifetime rental income. The tourists keep on coming…and resale value keeps on appreciating

Of course, Hawaii investment real estate opportunities won’t preclude a relocation decision. In fact, there are a thousand reasons why people make that same decision – to leave the hustle and bustle of the world and come to Hawaii to live.

·        The weather is spectacular all year around

·        The people are extremely friendly and welcoming to outsiders and newcomers

·        It’s a relaxing and peaceful environment to live and enjoy life

·        There are great private schools for your kids and grandkids

·        If you’re a nature buff, you’ll have the best snorkeling opportunities on the entire planet

·        There’s nature and beauty everywhere you look – from blue skies to tall mountains to white sandy beaches and awesome waves

·        And those waves are yet another reason to move to one of Hawaii’s islands, like Oahu. You’ll enjoy bodyboarding and surfing like nowhere in the world

·        Get away from the automobile pollution of the big cities, and enjoy a pristine clean environment. You can literally walk, bike or sail to any destination you want – whether it’s the theatre, dentist, shopping mall or grocery store

·        Planning to work online while you’re a thousand miles away from the rat-race? Well, with all that nature around to inspire you, a place like Oahu, Hawaii is the ideal destination for tele-work

And, as if those aren’t reasons enough to consider owning luxury homes for sale in Hawaii, then here’s one more: Hawaii is home to an assortment of KILLER Mai Tai’s! If it’s unwinding you need from a “stressful” day on the beach, watching the surfers do their thing, then a made in Hawaii Mai Tai beverage is just the reason to make Hawaii your home!

Why Oahu?

Moving to anywhere in Hawaii is a great choice.  But Oahu is one place that you’ll find offers you everything you’re looking for. So, if you’re considering relocating, or are just looking for a great real estate investment opportunity, then you’ll find it worth exploring Oahu as your primary destination.

All the comforts of modern living

Don’t get me wrong – beachcombing, surfing, snorkeling and bodyboarding…they’re all here across Oahu. But there’s more to this little Hawaiian island paradise than that.

·        Cost of living-conscious residents, tourists and vacation-homers love deals – and deals are aplenty at any of the many Costco locations spread all over. You don’t need to shop anywhere that’ll charge you an arm and a leg for a quart of milk!

·        Fresh groceries are abundant on the island – thanks to a network of conveniently located grocery stores that carry everything you’ll need, regardless of your ethnicity, racial background or taste buds

·        Oahu cares for its future generations. From prep-schools to institutions of higher education, regardless of where you live, you’re spoilt for choice when it comes to making those hard decisions about where to send your child for their education

·        And, of course, not everyone loves the sea – so, you’ll find a variety of sports and fitness activity centers all over. Whether its soccer, softball, golfing or extreme sports…you pick your poison and it’s there for you

·        And, in the event of a health crisis, you’ll find a health care facility, hospital or clinic conveniently located across Oahu  

As you can see, investing in luxury homes in Hawaii doesn’t mean you escape from the modern comforts of life. Everything you need for a stress-free, peaceful lifestyle, you’ll find right here in Oahu. It’s like you’ve entered a whole new dimension…with all the trappings of modern life – except the traffic jams, the smog, the pollution, and the constant yelling and honking!

Oahu places worth considering

If you are ready to make the Big Move to Oahu, then here are a few places where you might just find your special piece of Hawaiian heaven:

1)     Lanikai

In native parlance, Lanikai means “heavenly oceans”, and that’s exactly what you’ll encounter when you buy a luxury real estate in Hawaii – especially in Lanikai on Oahu’s windward coast.

As a homeowner or investor here, you’ll have access to one of the most photographed beaches on the entire planet – Lanikai Beach. And offshore, you’ll find the two Mokulua Islands – both are dream kayaking destinations to die for.

2)     Wailupe Circle

The Wailupe Beach neighborhood comprises of about a handful (2-dozen or so) beachfront homes that run the length of the Kalanianaole Highway, as well as roughly 120 or so homes in the greater Wailupe Peninsula area. The neighborhood itself is in good company. To the west of Wailupe Beach is Kai Nani, with Aina Haina Beach to its east.

Owning Hawaii condos for sale in Wailupe Circle, or other investment property in the neighborhood, makes you an owner in one of Honolulu’s most prestigious oceanfront communities.

3)     Mokuleia

If you are looking for Hawaii investment property, vacation homes or a permanent home off the beaten path, then Mokuleia is calling out to you!  Situated on the North shore of Oahu, this is a sleepy, quiet part of the waterfront, where there’s not too much traffic to disturb you.

Your Hawaii investment real estate opportunity in Mokuleia gets you two peaceful neighbors. On the one side of the road are agricultural lands and farms. And on the other side you’ll have the vast, peaceful beaches of the Pacific Ocean for company. If your heart calls out for a great escape away from the hustle and bustle of the urban life, then Mokuleia awaits you with open arms!

Oahu, Hawaii: Your Choice of Places to Live, Work and Invest in

Part II of IV

An oasis within the deep blue Pacific Ocean! That’s the only way to describe what one experiences when living in a place like Hawaii.  For one, you’ll enjoy extended periods of warm sunny climate. That’s enough reason to move to Hawaii if you are a snow bird always looking for warmer climes. And then, there are the people – warm too, and friendly and welcoming. Even if you aren’t particularly a “people person”, you’ll immediately fall in love with everyone’s charm and hospitality.

And then there’s the other reason that most people long to own Hawaii beachfront real estate – the sights, sounds, culture and history of the island. The sky is blue. The sunshine is amazing. And the beaches are awesome! This is one place where it doesn’t matter where you’re from, what your cultural background is, or what you do for a living. With its diversity and historical roots, the island will grow on you.

There are so many historical places to visit, sights to see and foods to taste – it’s no wonder that Hawaii is the number one tourist destination in the world.  And Oahu is probably one place on the entire island where you’ll encounter a broad range living experience.  The East-meets-West culture will thrill you to the core. If it’s a big city meets quaint town living experience that you crave for, then that’s exactly what owners of luxury homes in Hawaii receive!

You may have plans for a permanent relocation of your household to enjoy the sunny climes of Hawaii. Alternately, this may be your vacation home that you come to when you and your friends and family wish to unwind and destress. Or better yet, this might be the year when one of the many available Hawaii luxury homes makes it into your investment portfolio of high-quality real estate. 

Regardless of what your intentions are, you’re bound to find something in Oahu that’s just right for you. Here are a few places in Oahu where you might just find your special piece of Hawaiian heaven:

1)     Haleiwa

Picture the sight of whales breaching and riding waves, breathtaking sunrises and sunsets, mesmerizing moon rises and sets and crystal-clear ocean views. Sounds interesting? If so, then you want to look for luxury Oahu homes in Haleiwa! And oh, before we move on – did we mention that you’ll experience the most amazing surfing opportunities – right in your backyard!

Most of the luxury homes here come with all the amenities of luxurious beachfront living. Many of the structures are reminiscent of their original building plans – the plantation style architecture – that makes them the envy of tourists and locals alike.

With countless dive and surf spots in the vicinity, the location of these homes makes them an added attraction, especially when it comes to long-term value appreciation. Whether you buy to move in permanently yourself, or invest in as a vacation home, you could also rent some parts of your home to tourists around the year to make some extra income. Now that’s a great value proposition for anyone looking for property in Haleiwa, Oahu.

2)     Hawaii Kai

One of the premier marina communities in Hawaii, Hawaii Kai is a greatly sought-after living address for many aspiring Hawaiian residents, vacationers and real estate investors. The brainchild of renowned industrialist and real estate pioneer Henry J. Kaiser in the early 1960s, what used to be hog farms, fishponds, and marshy wet lands soon transformed into Hawaii luxury homes , beachfront properties and condominium projects. 

Today, as the most eastern spot of the island of Oahu, the over 6,000 acres of developed communities in Hawaii Kai include more than 10,000 households spanning the Koolau mountain ridgeline to the north, the Pacific Ocean to the south, Kuliouou Beach Park to the west, and the lighthouse of Makapuu Point to the east.

Imagine living a life where dining out at a restaurant, taking in a movie or shopping means hoping onto a boat from your backyard and riding it across the marina to buy whatever you need. No more red lights, annoying bumper-to-bumper traffic, smog filled city streets or infuriating honking and road rage!  And that’s exactly why so many Hawaii Kai property owners are choosing to move away from the big cities across the world. Just contact us at 808-295-0704 and that peace of mind can be yours for the asking!

3)     Kahala

If you are looking for glamour and glitz, craving the life that only Hollywood celebrities enjoy, then you’ll most likely fall in love with any of the Oahu luxury homes in Kahala. Kahala communities began to flourish back in the 1920s, with early home building activity in the neighborhood. However, more extensive construction occurred in the 1950s and 1960s

Popularly known as the Beverly Hills of Hawaii’s Honolulu paradise, the homes here in Oahu’s Kahala neighborhoods are a mix of newly developed larger 2-story luxury mansions, interspersed with old-world charm of ranch style homesteads.

Lucky oceanfront property owners on Kahala’s east have a great view of the pristine sandy white beach along approximately 1 mile of waterfront along Kahala Avenue.  If you want privacy while still being in this prestigious location, then invest in luxury homes in Hawaii on west of Hunakai St in Kahala. There, you’ll have the privacy of a sea wall to keep visitors, tourists and neighbors at bay.

If it’s peace and quiet of beachfront living, in a prestigious Oahu neighborhood, that you crave for, with easy commute along spacious roads and minimum population density – then Kahala’s luxury homes are just the right investment for you.

4)     Kaneohe

Owning Oahu luxury homes, especially in Kaneohe, offers life-long living experiences, making it an ideal destination for relocating, vacationing or real estate investing. Being located on Kaneohe Bay means you’ll have access to many sailing and boating activities.

If it’s modern luxuries of life you’re looking for, so you can move right in – many homes come with amenities such as AC Split, Auto Garage Door Opener, Ceiling Fan, Convection Oven, Dishwasher, Disposal, Drapes, Dryer, Lawn Sprinkler, Microwave, Range Hood, Range/Oven, Refrigerator, Smoke Detector, Solar Water Heater, Washing Machine…and more!

But that’s not all. The best part of owning Hawaii beachfront real estate across Kaneohe is the stunning views of the mountain tops and ocean that’ll you and your family will wake up to and go to bed with – every day! That’s just how things play out with owning a home in Kaneohe.

Oahu, Hawaii: Great Places to Live, Work and Invest in

Part I of IV

With so much anxiety and turmoil going on around the world today, it’s very tempting to look for a paradise haven of your own, and move your family there. Alternately, owning a nice vacation property in such a place might offer a safe harbor until the storm clouds blow over. Buying real estate, either for residential or investment purposes, is probably a great idea, and the island of Hawaii offers the perfect opportunity.

If you’re looking for a magnificent Hawaii beach house for sale, then Oahu, also referred to as “The Gathering Place”, presents some exceptional options. The 3^rd-largest of Hawaii’s islands, Oahu boasts of a diverse East-West culture, and provides homeowners, vacationers and native residents a diversity of lifestyles – from laid-back beachcombing and surfing, to quaint town-like ambiance, to bustling city vibes. Oahu has it all!

Whether you choose to relocate your family permanently to Hawaii, plan on frequenting it occasionally as a vacation heaven, or wish to buy Hawaii luxury homes as an investment, we’re here to help. We guarantee that you’ll find something that suits your taste in our vast inventory of Oahu luxury properties.

Here are just some of the Oahu areas where you might find something worth owning:  

1.     Sunset Beach

Located just beyond the well-known Banzai Pipeline, in the vicinity of Ehukai Beach and the North Shore harbors, is another 2-mile (approx. 3.2 Kms.) expanse of sandy haven called Sunset Beach Hawaii.

If you love surfing, or simply want to while away the hours relaxing and watching big-wave surfers do their thing in wintertime, then Sunset Beach, Oahu, is the perfect place for you. With Gen X’ers now actively looking for the perfect retirement getaway, demand for the perfect Hawaii beach house for sale, especially in the Sunset Beach area, may be overheating.

And with dwindling supply, comes price wars that drive the prices of scarce supply up – that’s just the reality of a hot Oahu real estate market. To avoid participating in bidding wars, most prospective buyers are locking-in their bids now, so they can get just the right home for their budgets. Wise move!

If you want to assure ownership of your own beach-front retirement, or simply want a vacation home near a pristine beach, then we can certainly help you realize your dream. We guarantee you find everything that Oahu luxury homes can offer, including the awe-inspiring natural beauty of Sunset Beach…and more! 

2.     Waikiki

Are you looking for Hawaii beachfront homes for sale in one the world’s most sought-after vacationing and leisure destinations? Well, when you buy property in Waikiki, whether it’s a home or a condo, you get just want you’re dreaming for…and much more! The eight sections of Waikiki beach converge into a spectacular 2-mile sandy paradise, that stretches from the large Duke Kahanamoku Beach, all the way down to a tiny piece of sand across from the Outrigger Canoe Club, near Diamond Head. The best of Waikiki is right here.

Waikiki offers some of the best luxury real estate in Honolulu. The city is literally a paradise of tranquility, with over 5 million people visiting there. You’ll have plenty of things to do, lots of shopping and other amenities close-by, and for the energetic night-owl, the city offers the very best of the island’s nightlife too!

Do you have surfing on your mind? The south swells in and around Waikiki are perfect for aspiring as well as pro surfers. And, if you are a family unit, don’t worry – the kids will enjoy their new paradise in Hawaii at Waikiki. The beaches are kid-friendly, so they’ll have lots to explore and keep themselves busy. And the Waikiki aquarium will fascinate everyone…including “kids” from 1 to 99 – guaranteed!

3.     Kailua

Another great spot for owning Oahu luxury homes in Hawaii is Kailua. While there is a commercial hub centered along the Kailua Road business district, Kailua is primarily a homeowner’s paradise – a residential haven. 

Located on the east coast of Oahu, Kailua is characterized by long stretches of sandy beaches on Kailua Bay, including a center of many water sports called Kailua Beach Park, and the gentle waves that flow through Kalama Beach Park. That sounds very appropriate, because Kailua in the Hawaiian language means “dual currents” or “two seas”. The name aptly describes the two scenic lagoons of the district, and the two sets of currents that flow through the crescent-shaped Kailua Bay.  

Flanked by Kailua Bay and the majestic Koolau Mountain cliffs, owners of luxury homes in Kailua Hawaii get the best of many worlds – especially if it’s peace of mind and tranquility you’re looking for. You won’t find the usual “hub hub” of a large tourist town, with skyrise hotels and 50,000-square foot box stores. Instead, you’ll be greeted with some of the best, and quaint little boutique stores and restaurants on the island here in Kailua.

And, if the ambiance of family-run stores and friendly, cozy bread-and-breakfast enterprises doesn’t lure you, then the plethora of hiking trails, water sport opportunities, historic sightseeing, bird watching and weekly visits to farmer’s markets sure will. Formerly a playground for Hawaiian royalty (alii), modern-day owners of Hawaii beachfront homes for sale in Kailua are in equally great company, with contemporary “royals” like former President Barack Obama and entertainers Jessica Simpson, Rihanna and Beyoncé and Jay-Z having made this their vacationing destination of choice.

4.     Diamond Head

Known as Lēʻahi to the local population, one of Oahu, Hawaii’s distinguishing locations is Diamond Head, a naturally-formed geological collection of vents, cones formed as a result of now dormant volcanic formations. Diamond Head was declared a national natural landmark in 1968 and, because of the panoramic view it offers of the south shores of Oahu and Waikiki, it also served as a military observation post in the 1900s. So, if you own Hawaii luxury homes on this part of the island, you’ll literally be in the midst of history. Geologists estimate that Diamond Head is anywhere between 400,000 to 500,000 years old!

With the Diamond Head crater in their backyards, owners of luxury homes for sale in Diamond Head Hawaii virtually assure themselves of endless opportunities for taking in the natural wonders of their neighborhood. If you are an avid hiker, you won’t be disappointed. Upon ascending the summit, you’ll enjoy the most spectacular view of Oahu’s leeward-side, including the nearby island of Molokai and the neighborhood’s most famous resident – the Diamond Head Lighthouse. On a clear day, you and your family will enjoy the breathtaking view of the Pacific Ocean and as far away as Honolulu and Waikiki. 

Initial Jobless Claims are moving in the wrong direction, unfortunately, as the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time increased in the latest week. While the number of people continuing to receive benefits did decline, read on below to see why this news is not as positive as it seems.

In housing news, builder confidence declined in December after setting record-highs in November, per the National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index. However, the reading is still the second highest on record and shows that builders remain positive about conditions.

The latest construction data also reflects the strong demand for housing. Housing Starts were up 1.2% from October to November and they also jumped 12.8% versus November of last year. The all-important single-family starts ticked up 0.4% to reach their highest level in 13.5 years. Building Permits, which are a good future indicator of Housing Starts, rose 6.2% from October's revised rate, with single-family permits up 1.3% from October to November.

While housing remains a bright spot in our economy, retailers struggled in November due to the spike in COVID cases. Retail Sales fell 1.1%, much worse than the 0.3% drop expected, while Core Retail Sales (which excludes automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food service) fell 0.5%. This was also lower than the 0.2% gain expected. This report shows how crucial additional stimulus is for businesses and families to bridge the gap until vaccines are widely deployed.

The pandemic is also causing a slowdown in manufacturing in the New York and Philadelphia regions, as the Empire State Index came in below expectations in

December at 4.9 while the Philadelphia Fed Index was reported at 11.1, also below estimates of 21.1.

Lastly, the Fed held its regularly scheduled Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which turned out to be somewhat of a non-event as highlighted below.  

Jobless Claims Moving in the Wrong Direction

Another 885,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week ending December 12, which is an increase of 23,000 claims from the prior week. Continuing Claims, which are delayed a week, did decrease by 273,000 to 5.5 million. While on the surface this sounds like good news, unfortunately the decrease is for the wrong reasons.

When regular benefits expire, people can file for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which extends their benefits another 13 weeks – and that figure increased by nearly 700,000! This is just further evidence that a new stimulus deal and the vaccine distribution are crucial to help businesses and employees in the months ahead.

Builder Confidence Remains Strong

The National Association of Home Builders Housing Market Index, which is a real-time read on builder confidence, fell 4 points in December to 86 after setting a record high in November. Even though this was a pullback, it is still the second highest number on record. Any reading over 50 in this index that runs from 1-100 signals that more builders see conditions as good versus poor.

All three components of the index declined 4 points in December, with current sales conditions reported at 92, sales expectations for the next six months at 85, and buyer traffic dropping to 73. Again, despite the declines, these are still strong readings.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted “housing remains a bright spot for a recovering economy.”

The latest construction data also supports the strong demand for housing, as Housing Starts rose 1.2% in November from October's revised rate. Starts are also 12.8% higher than they were compared to November of last year. While starts on multi-family units led the way, single-family starts were up 0.4% and at their highest level in 13.5 years.

Building Permits, which are a good future indicator of Housing Starts, rose 6.2% from October's revised rate and they were also up 8.5% year over year. Single-family permits ticked up 1.3% from October to November.

The Latest from the Fed

The Fed held its regularly scheduled meeting, which was something of a non-event as they noted they will continue to purchase Mortgage Backed Securities and Treasuries at their current levels (which has helped stabilize the markets), rather than expand their Bond buying program. Fed Chair Jerome Powell did note, however, that the Fed stands ready to buy more longer-dated maturity Bonds if they feel the economy needs it.

The Fed also reiterated that they are going to keep their benchmark Fed Funds Rate at zero until at least 2023 and that they would not jump the gun on rising rates, even if there are some transient blips of inflation due to COVD and demand coming back faster than supply. Note that the Fed Funds Rate is the rate the banks use when lending to each other overnight and it is not the same as home loan rates. As far as their projections, the Fed thinks the unemployment rate will be 5% in 2021 and GDP will be 4.2%.

What to Look for This Week

The middle of the week is packed with a variety of important reports across many sectors of the economy.

On Tuesday, the final estimate for third quarter GDP will be reported along with Existing Home Sales for November. More housing news follows on Wednesday with November's New Home Sales and the Federal Housing Finance Agency's House Price Index. We'll also get the latest data on inflation with November's Personal Consumption Expenditures, along with Personal Income and Spending.

Finally on Thursday, November's Durable Goods Orders and the latest weekly Jobless Claims figures will be released. The markets will be closing early on Thursday and will be closed on Friday for the Christmas holiday.

Technical Picture

The Fed's ongoing purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities continues to provide stability to the markets. Mortgage Bonds are being squeezed in a tight range between their 25-day Moving Average, which has been a solid floor of support, and overhead resistance at 103.70.

Week of December 7th, 2020 in Review

The rise in COVID cases and decline in Paycheck Protection Program money is having a worsening impact on businesses and workers around the country as jobless claims trended in the wrong direction in the latest report. The number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time increased. The number of people continuing to receive benefits also rose.

Consumer inflation remained tame in November, per the latest Consumer Price Index report. Headline inflation was up 0.2% in November while the year-over-year reading remained unchanged at 1.2%. Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was also up 0.2% monthly while the annual reading was unchanged at 1.6%. More below about why tame inflation matters to Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates.

The latest National Federation of Independent Business Small Business Optimism Index dropped 2.6 points in November to 101.4, a three-month low. Within the report, those seeing higher selling prices rose 3 points to the highest level since May 2018, which is just 1 point from matching the highest since 2008. This data speaks to businesses not having enough people to help their supply meet demand, which is a sign that temporary inflation could be on the horizon.

Initial Jobless Claims Rise in Latest Week

Another 853,000 people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time during the week ending December 5, which is an increase of 137,000 claims from the prior week. Continuing Claims, which measure people who continue to receive benefits, also increased by 230,000 to 5.575 million.

In addition, remember that when regular benefits expire, people can file for Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which extends their benefits for another 13 weeks. The number of Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims did decline by 313,000, but unfortunately for all the wrong reasons as benefits are expiring.

Keeping an Eye on Inflation

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation at the consumer level was tame in November, up 0.2% from October. The year over year reading remained unchanged at 1.2%. Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, was up 0.2% on a monthly basis while the year over year reading was unchanged at 1.6%.

Inflation was also tame at the wholesale level, as November's Producer Price Index showed that headline inflation increased by 0.1%, which was in line with market expectations.

While these numbers are still relatively low, the year over year readings could continue to move higher as demand outpaces supply for goods and services. Those higher producer costs could translate to higher consumer costs and inflation.

Remember that inflation erodes the buying power of a Bond's fixed coupon over time. Meaning that rising inflation can cause Bonds to worsen or move lower. Home loan rates are inversely tied to Mortgage Bonds, so when Bonds worsen, home loan rates can rise. Though many factors influence the markets, tame inflation can benefit Mortgage Bonds and help home loan rates remain low.

The “Affordability” Myth

You may have heard some recent reports in the media about problems with home affordability. However, the "problem" being reported is a myth. Homes remain affordable today and in some cases are even more affordable today than they were a year ago.

What causes this confusion? Many mistakenly look at the significant move higher in the median home price, which is currently up 15% versus last year. But the median home price does not measure appreciation. Instead, it marks the middle price point of recent home sales.

Home prices have appreciated in the last year, but only 7% per the latest reports. Meanwhile, rates have fallen in this same period. This means that for many people, the monthly principal and interest payment to buy a home today could be lower than last year.

The bottom line is that there is reason to feel positive about the housing market with great opportunities for people hoping to buy a home next year!

What to Look for This Week

On Tuesday, we'll get an update on manufacturing in the New York region with December's Empire State Index, followed by the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday.

In addition, the Fed's two-day meeting begins Tuesday with their Monetary Policy Statement being released Wednesday. November Retail Sales will also be reported on Wednesday, which will reveal how retailers fared given the uptick in COVID cases. And on Thursday, the latest jobless claims figures remain critical to monitor.

Technical Picture

The Fed continues to provide stability to the markets thanks to its ongoing purchases of Mortgage Backed Securities. Mortgage Bonds continue to ride the 25-day Moving Average, which has provided solid support in recent days. Bonds have room to move higher until reaching resistance at 103.953 and if Stocks continue to sell off, we could see Bonds move higher in this range.

Oahu Real Estate Market Outlook - November 2020: Signs of recovery and better things to come

When COVID-19 hit Hawaii in the first quarter of 2020, realtors, buyers, sellers and real estate-related business braced for a backlash. Was there an impact – yes, as might be expected. But there are clear signs that the worst might be behind us. Even in the midst of a pandemic, it doesn’t appear that Oahu is experiencing a cooling in its real estate market. While sales volumes and pricing, for both condos and single-family homes aren’t overheating, there is a perfect mix of buyer interest and seller enthusiasm.

Overall, the market saw a slight spike in new listings, from 1,051 in September to 1,128 in October this year. However, it wouldn’t be accurate to say Oahu’s housing lacks competitiveness. In fact, the number of condos and single-family homes selling above asking price has increased – showing that there is plenty of competition from buyers, though not as much inventory as the market would have liked. Part of the reason for this robustness may be attributable to the fact that more travelers are now moving to Oahu to view open houses and check what’s on sale there. And that, in and of itself, is a sign of a healthy market!

LET THE NUMBERS SPEAK

According to the Honolulu Board of Realtors, compared to the same period last year (Oct 2019), the median price of single-family homes in Oahu rose by nearly 11% last month (Oct 2020). With condominiums, however, the outlook wasn’t as rosy. Condo sales rose by just 1.7%, with median unit prices staying flat. The bright spot, however, is that condos experienced their first increase (albeit a relatively minor one!) since the beginning of the pandemic back in January 2020.

At a median price of $865,000, single-family homes experienced a healthy price increase in October 2020, compared to $780,000 last year (10.9% increase). On a month-over-month basis though, median single-family home prices experienced a slight down-tick from the $880,000 tag they commanded in Sept 2020 – that’s a 1.7% decline. October 2020 also saw slightly fewer (0.6%) single-family homes sold (345) compared to the same period last year (347).

The price tag of the median condominium was $439,500 in Oct 2020, which was around 0.3% less than what it was around the same time last year at $ 441.000 (Oct 2019). However, Oct 2020 saw 8 more units (for a total of 480) change hands than during last October (472).

The year-to-date numbers, for both single-family homes and condos highlight some interesting dynamics in Oahu’s real estate market. During the first 10-months of 2019, 3,121 single-family homes changed hands. That number was down slightly, by 1.3% (to 3,080) in the first 10-months of 2020. However, the median price of homes, on a year-to-date basis, rose in Oct 2020, from $785,000 to $818,500. 

Year-to-date condo sales were slightly sluggish, with only 3,785 units moving in the first 10-months of 2020, compared to 4,546 from Jan 2019 to Oct 2019. That’s a 16.7% decline. At a median Oct 2020 price of $432,750, condo prices, however, saw a slight YTD increase of around 1.1% compared to $428,000 during the first 10-months of 2019. 

SPOTTING THE TRENDS

On a y/y-basis, new single-family home listings were down by 17.6% in Oct 2020, but the bright spot was that they showed a slight up-tick – of 3.3% - on a m/m basis. The most significant trend shift was noticed in single-family homes priced in the $600,000 to $699,999 range. Compared to last year, this group of homes saw a 52.3% decline in new listings coupled with a unit sales decline of 56.8%. 

Another trend shift was noted in single-family homes valued in the $800,000 to $1,199,999 price range. Their sales increased by 39.2%. When it comes to a sellers’ market, more than half of October 2020 sales (50%) in the $700,000 to $899,999 price range sold above the asking price.  

Single-family Oahu homes put on sale spent an average of just 10-days on the market. That definitely bodes well for sellers looking to list their properties now! 

There were some notable trends observed in the condominium sector too. Condos in the $500,000 to $599,999 price range saw an 18.5% uptick in new listings, with those priced in the $400,000 to $499,999 price range seeing a 30.23% surge in sales (112 units) compared to just 86 in the same period last year. More notably, an overwhelming 63% of condominiums listed in the $400,000 to $599,999 range changed hands above the asking price.

The median time that an average Oahu condo unit spent on the market was 18 days.

EXPERT OPINION

Overall, the ongoing pandemic crisis seems to barely made a dent in Oahu market, barely impacting it, if at all. The numbers speak for themselves, signaling that Oahu’s real estate market is not just resilient, but is primed for a brighter future.  

Oahu housing market is definitely hot, and now’s the time get in – whether you’re buying or selling. And, the numbers don’t lie – they tell a story of a real estate sweet spot. How do we judge that? Well, the sign that a market is healthy and competitive is when sellers and buyers both walk away with what they want. Compared to last year, the doubling of single-family homes and nearly 64% of condos selling for above asking price tells a story of a robust market.   

Experts believe that now is the best time for both sellers and buyers to jump into the market and get exactly what they’re looking for.

According to Tricia Nekota, president, Honolulu Board of Realtors^®:

“A lack of inventory coupled with high demand from buyers looking to capitalize on historically low interest rates is driving a very competitive market for single-family homes on O‘ahu. This is an opportune time for sellers to list their properties as housing values continue to rise, and buyers are on the hunt for their forever homes,”

Clearly, while there’s demand out there from home buyers looking to move into a serene community like Oahu, there are also sellers looking to cash-in and move on. Hawaii offers excellent respite from the hustle and bustle of most parts of the world. Whether you’re looking for a peaceful retirement get-away, a vacation property or a permanent change in your home address, places like Oahu offer the perfect place to invest in.

Top 10 Hawaiian Real Estate Blogs and Websites To Follow in 2020

We are please to announce that www.HawaiianBeachfront.com is ranked by Feedspot.com to be the #9 top 10 for Hawaii Blogs. Please see link for more details: https://blog.feedspot.com/hawaiian_real_estate_blogs/  

We try to keep you informed of whats going on in the market and keep you up to date. Make sure to come and see whats going on, available 24 hours a day.

9. HawaiianBeachFront.com

Honolulu, Hawaii, United StatesAbout Blog Search all Hawaii Luxury, beachfront, and oceanfront real estate for sale including single-family homes, condos, townhomes, and land. Our MLS listings update every 15 minutes. Frequency 2 posts / month Since Jul 2017 Blog hawaiianbeachfront.com/blog/..+ Follow
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